Wings of Influence: China’s Rise in Global Military Aviation After the India-Pakistan Dogfight

The recent armed conflict between Pakistan and India has not only heightened regional tensions but also underscored a significant geopolitical victory for China. Amidst the ongoing skirmishes, one of the most striking developments is the reported downing of Indian Air Force Rafale jets—French-made fighters—by Pakistan Air Force J-10C aircraft, a multirole fighter developed and manufactured by China. This incident carries far-reaching implications for South Asia’s military balance, China’s aerospace industry, and broader geopolitical strategy.

China as the Big Winner: Demonstrating Aerospace Supremacy

The J-10C’s success in air combat against the French-made Rafale signals a major breakthrough for China’s aerospace sector. Historically, Western-manufactured fighter jets like the Rafale have been regarded as superior in air-to-air combat. However, the J-10C’s performance in the recent conflict challenges this perception, showcasing China’s advanced aviation technology and proving its combat effectiveness on the battlefield.

This demonstration of air superiority is not just a military triumph but also a strategic and economic one. The J-10C’s success in actual combat could pave the way for increased international sales, especially among countries reassessing their reliance on Western military hardware. As China continues to promote its indigenous defense systems, nations across the Global South—often under pressure to purchase Western arms—may now view Chinese equipment as a more viable and affordable alternative.

In essence, the J-10C’s performance boosts China’s soft power by portraying its military technology as reliable, battle-tested, and competitive. This not only enhances China’s defense exports but also expands its geopolitical influence.

China-Pakistan Relations: A Strategic Alliance

China’s relationship with Pakistan has long been strategically important, solidified through initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). With CPEC linking China to the Arabian Sea, Pakistan’s security and stability are crucial to Chinese economic and strategic interests. As such, China has closely monitored the recent conflict, recognizing that regional instability could threaten its investments.

By providing advanced fighter jets to Pakistan, China is not only reinforcing bilateral ties but also projecting its influence in Asia. The J-10C’s reported success over the Rafale further strengthens Pakistan’s trust in Chinese military technology, deepening their strategic partnership. In turn, this positions China to enhance military cooperation and increase arms sales, expanding its influence across the region.

Strategic Diversion: Shifting India’s Focus

The India-Pakistan conflict also serves a broader strategic purpose for China. India and China have long-standing border disputes, especially along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayas. By maintaining robust military support for Pakistan, China indirectly diverts India’s strategic focus westward, reducing pressure along their shared eastern frontier.

From a geopolitical standpoint, China recognizes that India’s military resources and strategic attention are limited. Keeping India preoccupied with Pakistan allows China to fortify its border infrastructure and assert control in contested regions without immediate resistance. This reflects a calculated, long-term strategy of managing regional rivals through indirect means.

Long-Term Strategic Play: Diminishing Western Industrial Power

China’s ability to demonstrate the J-10C’s combat capabilities also aligns with its broader ambition to challenge Western industrial dominance. Modern warfare is not solely about battlefield success but also about industrial capacity—the ability to produce and sustain arms at scale. While Western nations have historically led in this domain, China is rapidly working to overturn that dynamic.

By offering cost-effective, reliable military products, China positions itself as a credible arms supplier to nations wary of Western political strings. As Western arms industries grapple with rising production costs and geopolitical uncertainties, China’s growing industrial self-sufficiency and technological maturity allow it to capture larger shares of the global arms market.

In this environment, countries in the Global South may increasingly favor Chinese weapons, despite Western pressure. While the U.S. and Europe emphasize conditional military aid and sanctions, China’s “no-strings-attached” approach to defense partnerships becomes more appealing. Over time, this could significantly reshape global arms trading patterns, with China emerging as a dominant defense exporter and an influential player in international security alliances.